基于集值-层次分析的公共政策风险评价

Risk Evaluation of Public Policy Based on Set-valued Statistics and Hierarchy

公共政策风险评价是公共政策决策的重要内容。本文在综合评价的基础上,考虑到专家对公共政策风险进行评价时的不确定性和模糊性,结合集值统计和层次分析方法,提出了一种公共政策风险评价方法,并对专家们判断的可靠度进行了研究,为政府机构的政策决策提供一定的科学依据。

Risk evaluation of public policy has been an important content in decision-making of public police. In this paper a new method of risk evaluation is introduced by combing the ways of set-valued statistics with analytical hierarchy process, when uncertainty and vagueness are taken into account in expert＇s judgment. The credibility of judgment is researched, which provides a scientific basis for the government.