张掖市生态足迹的社会经济驱动力分析

Socio-Economic Driving Analysis on Zhangye City's Ecological Footprints

本文在简要介绍生态足迹的基础上,利用生态足迹理论,计算了张掖市1995-2004年的人均生态足迹,研究建立了人均生态足迹时间序列作为模型因变量,并根据区域社会经济发展与生态足迹变化的作用机理选择了7个社会经济发展相关指标为自变量,并通过相关性分析,主成分分析等方法进行了计算分析,最后建立多元线性回归模型,模型检验结果比较理想。结果表明:(1)张掖市人均生态足迹从1995年的1.449增加到2004年的2.321hm2,而生态承载力变化微弱,致使生态赤字日趋严重;(2)各因子与人均生态足迹相关性在置信水平α=0.01时均为显著,其中与二、三产业比重和人均GDP的相关性最大,分别达0.981和0.962,人均生态足迹是社会经济各因子综合作用的结果。

In this study, on the basis of the brief introduction in ecological footprints,the ecological footprint per capita of Zhangye city from 1995 to 2004 were calculated,and attempted to analyze driving effects from economic indices to ecological footprint.A multivariate linear regression model was established to analyze the relationship between regional ecological appropriation and socio-economic system,regarding ecological footprint per capita as dependent variable and seven correlative socio-economic indices as independent variables.The result of the driving model indicated that socio-economic development was a major driving force for regional ecological appropriation.The results showed：（1） The ecological footprint per capita of Zhangye City rose from 1.449 in 1995 to 2.321 in 2004,but the ecological changes weakly,which resulted the ecological deficit growing very quickly;（2） The correlation between ecological footprint per capita and the factors are significant at the 0.01 level.Of all the factors,the proportions of the industry、 service,and average GDP most tightness with the per capita ecological footprint,respectively 0.981 and 0.962.Ecological footprint were the Per capita of Zhangye City is the result of intergration socio-economic system.