新疆塔里木盆地城镇综合实力的主成分分析

A Principle Component Analysis on Synthetic Strength for Towns in Tarim Basin

运用主成分分析方法,按照简要、可行的原则,建立了覆盖3个方面共13个指标的城市综合实力指标体系。对塔里木盆地的5个设市城市和37个县政府驻地镇的综合实力进行计算和比较。运用SPSS13.0统计软件对上述指标进行标准化处理,用方差最大法正交旋转,并通过载荷系数分析得出五个主成分,将各主成分得分结合主成分权重进行计算,得出塔里木盆地各城镇的综合实力值。城镇综合实力排名前七位的城镇分别是库尔勒市、阿克苏市、库车县、喀什市、轮台县、和田市、阿图什市。从总体上看,城镇综合实力以库尔勒市为起点,沿逆时针方向递减分布。根据各城镇的综合得分水平,对塔里木盆地城镇今后的发展提出若干建议:依托塔里木盆地油气资源的开发,建立南疆石化产业带;加强中亚南亚经贸合作,打造中亚南亚经济圈重心;发挥特色资源,构建环塔里木盆地特色林果产品产业带;优化区域城镇体系,充分发挥各级城镇的职能。

The synthetic strengthes of the 42 towns in Tarim Basin are calculated and compared through principle component analysis by setting up a series of indexes,including 3 aspects,13 indexes total.By normalizing the indexes with Statistica1 Software SPSS13.0 and rotated them by the method of varimax,analyzed the component matrix,five components are draw.And then,by multiplying each component score and corresponding component proportion,summing the consequences,the synthetic strength of the towns is calculated.From high to slow,they are Korla,Aksu,Kuqa,Kashgar,Luntai,Hotan,Artux and so on.General urban strength takes Korla as the start point,then descend gradually along counter-clockwise.According to the general score of every city,some suggestions about the future development of Tarim Basin cities are put forward： relying on the oil and natural gas exploitation of Tarim Basin to set up South Xinjiang oil and chemical industry zone;Strengthening the economic and commercial cooperation with Central Asia and South Asia to create the barycenter of economic circle;Exploiting characteristic resources to set up characteristic forestry and fruit industry zone;optimizing regional urban system and exerting urban function in all levels.