基于“拐点论”的湖南房价走势分析

On the Trend of House Price Based on Inflexion Theory in Hunan Province

自2000年我国房地产业步入新一轮景气周期以来,湖南房价一直处于上升过程中。目前在高位运行的湖南房价既有其合理性,也有其不合理性。合理性在于与其它省份相比,湖南整体房价还不是很高,涨幅也不大;不合理性在于房价收入比偏高,中低档住房价格涨幅居前。影响湖南房价未来走势的因素是多方面的,既有推动因素,也有制约因素。在各种因素的综合作用下,湖南房价近期内还难以出现由涨到跌的"拐点",但上涨速度应会趋缓。

The Hunan Province＇ house price has been rising since Chinese real estate industry begins it＇s new round booming from 2000. The extortionate and rising house price has its rationality as well as reasonless aspects. The rationality consists of the price that isn＇t very high and the markup isn＇t also big comparsion to other provinces. The irrationality consists of the ratio of house price and the earning is too high and the price of low-middle apartments is rising too fast. The factors which affect future trend of Hunan Province＇ house price are very complex. There are driving forces as well as restrictive factors for the price. Therefore, the inflexion of Hunan Province＇ house price won＇t appear in a short time, but the speed will be slow.