基于Morlet小波的河北省耕地数量动态分析

Dynamic Analysis on Quantity of Cultivated Land in Hebei Province based on Morlet Wavelet

使用1949～2006年统计数据,求出耕地数量、GDP、人口和粮食产量逐年变化率,选择Morlet小波对其作多尺度分解。结果表明：各要素均存在多尺度波动周期;15年尺度为耕地数量、人口和粮食产量波动的主周期,5～10年尺度为GDP波动主周期;1978年以后耕地数量和人口数量波动呈负相关。20世纪90年代以后耕地数量和GDP表现出负相关,大量耕地被占用是启动区域经济发展的重要因素之一。正确处理GDP增长和土地利用的关系,加快绿色GDP增长,进一步落实好国家的人口政策,控制人口过快增长才是区域经济发展的根本之道。

With the statistic data from 1949-2006,the change rate year by year for quantity of cultivated land,GDP,population and grain output was obtained,which were decomposed in multi-scale by selecting morlet wavelet.The result showed that each element had wave period of multi-scale,scale of 15 years was the main cycle of the fluctuation for cultivated land quantity,population and grain output,scale of 5-10 years was the main cycle of GDP fluctuation;The fluctuation of cultivated land quantity had negative correlation with that of population after 1978.The cultivated land quantity showed negative correlation with GDP after the 1990s of 20th century,large amount of cultivated land occupied was one of the important factors for starting regional economic development.The essential ways for regional economic development would be to handle with the relationship between GDP growth and land use correctly,accelerate green GDP growth,further implement the population policy in China,and control the fast increase of populati on.