室内火灾升温过程的随机性研究

Study on Stochastic Property of Temperature-time Process of Fully-Developed Compartment Fire

火灾升温的参数化模型由两部分组成,即升温段持续时间的确定和升温过程的函数关系。升温段持续时间是随机变量,升温过程是随机过程。随机性参数的概率密度函数复杂,用解析方法推导升温段持续时间和升温过程的概率分布类型和概率特征比较困难。本文运用Monte Carlo方法和数值方法研究了参数化模型升温过程的随机特性;给出了升温段持续时间的概率模型、升温过程的均值函数和方差函数,并利用区域模拟验证了基于参数化模型的火灾升温概率模型的有效性。

Constructing parametric model of temperature elevation in fire consists two parts, one is to determine the time of temperature elevation and the another one is to determine function relation of temperature elevation process. Temperature elevation time is a stochastic variable and temperature elevation process is a stochastic process. Probability density function is complex and it is hard to derive temperature elevation time, probability distributing type and probability characteristic by resolution method. In this paper, based on Monte Carlo simulation and numerical method, the characteristics of temperature-time process are studied. The probabilistic model of duration of heating phase is put forward, and the probabilistic characteristics of the temperature-time process are also given. Computer zone model is adopted to verify the results produced by the model.