区域场次特大旱灾评价指标体系与方法探讨

Discussion on evaluating indicator system and method for regional catastrophic drought disaster event

特大旱灾是对灾害严重程度的一种泛称,本文从理论层面对特大旱灾的内涵进行了分析,提出区域场次特大旱灾的概念,并对其评价指标和方法进行了探讨。在此基础上,以山西省为例,基于长时序历史灾害资料,就近500年山西省出现的场次特大旱灾进行了界定。研究成果包括:(1)区域场次特大旱灾的概念表征了灾害的共性即时间、空间和强度,同时突出了其特性即灾害过程;(2)以县级政区为基本分析单元,考虑史料记载中各要素可能不全、但可能互补的实际,建立了区域场次特大旱灾的评价指标体系;(3)利用层次分析法对区域场次特大旱灾的评价方法进行了探讨,方法操作性强,适用面广;(4)近500年山西省发生了6场特大旱灾,尽管其严重程度近50年并未遇到,但对其未来出现的可能性,应予以警惕。

The paper discusses the concept of catastrophic drought disaster event and analyses its evaluating indicator system and method. ascertain the catastrophic drought disasters Taking the Shanxi Province as a study case, the authors event in the province since 1470. The main conclusions can be drawn as follows. 1 ） The concept of catastrophic drought implies disaster event similarity in terms of time, scope and intensity, and its characteristics of disaster process as well; 2） By choosing county as a basal unit for analysis and considering insufficiency of disaster factors, which possibly need complements to each other, an indicator system for evaluating regional catastrophic drought disaster event is established; 3 ） By using analytic hierarchy process, the method of evaluating regional catastrophic drought disaster event is discussed, which shows that the method has merits of easy operation and wide applicability; 4） In past 500 years, 6 catastrophic drought disasters events had happened in Shanxi Province, and such intensive disaster did not appear in the last 50 years. But great attention should be paid to the probability of such disasters in future.