归纳推理合理性的心理学分析与回答

A Psychological Analysis and Solution for Validity of Inductive Reasoning

本文回顾了前人对休谟问题的回答,分析了各种回答存在的基本问题。结合心理学对归纳推理的研究结果,提出归纳推理可分为概括和推理两阶段的观点。在此观点基础上,将归纳推理经历的思维过程分解成五部分,指出归纳前提具有不充分性特点,为表达完整的归纳推理过程构建了四个补充前提。根据归纳推理合理性取决于归纳原则是否具有保真性的思想,提出归纳原则的形式为:(A,P),X∈P/(A,X),论证了这个形式具有保真性,因此归纳推理具有合理性。或然性是归纳推理的基本特征,其根本原因在于归纳推理初始前提的不充分性,初始前提无法保证补充前提3和4为真,而不是归纳原则不具有保真性。

The previous solutions to Hume Problem were reviewed, and the relative basic shortcomings were analyzed. Integrated with the results from psychological studies, we proposed that inductive reasoning could be divided into two stages: generalization stage, reasoning stage. To express complete processing of inductive reasoning, four supplemental premises were put out. According to the validity of inductive reasoning was based on the fidelity of inductive principle, a new form of inductive principle was given: φ(A,P), X∈P/φ(A,X). The discussion showed that the fidelity of the new inductive principle would provide a validity of inductive reasoning. The probability is the basic feature of inductive reasoning, the main reason is the insufficiency of premise, because the supplemental premise 3 and 4 could not be guaranteed, but not the fidelity of premise.