电信业重组前后移动通信市场份额的博弈分析

Game analysis of the mobile communications market share before and after the reorganization of the telecom industry

根据修正后的Cournot模型和Stackelberg模型,文章分析了电信业重组前双寡头垄断下移动通信市场的市场份额,并用数据验证了分析结论;同时分析了电信业重组后三寡头垄断下移动通信市场初期以及成熟期的市场份额。根据本文的博弈分析,重组后中国移动的市场份额仍然居于领先地位,但有所下降,重组有一定效果。寡头垄断在稳定状态下的市场份额相对固定,这说明中国的移动通信企业在国内市场的发展要在竞争的基础上合作,实现共赢;同时要走出去,开拓国际市场,以实现更大发展。

Based on the improved Cournot model and Stackelberg model, this paper analyzes the first -mover advantage of China Mobile which is in a dominant position; then, by using complete information dynamic game, this paper analyzes the market share of the oligopoly monopolized market of the mobile communications industry before the reorganization of the telecom industry and tests the analysis conclusion; at the same time, this paper analyzes the market share at the time of initial stage and maturity of the market after the reorganization. According to the analysis of this paper, China Mobile＇s market share declines after the reorganization, which has a cer- tain effect, but China Mobile is still in a leading position. Be it the duopoly before the reorganization or the three oligopoly after the reorganization, every mobile operator has a relatively fixed market share in a steady state. This shows that mobile operators of China should cooperate on the basis of competition when developing the domestic market, and explore the international market in order to achieve greater development.