基于生物气候相似性的锈色棕榈象在中国的适生区预测

Prediction of Suitable Distributions of Red Palm Weevil Rhyncophorus ferrugineuss Fabriciu (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in China with Analysis of Bio-Climatic Matching

【目的】对中国重要的外来入侵和检疫性害虫锈色棕榈象在中国的可能适生区进行分析和预测。【方法】利用CLIMEX模型气候相似分析方法得出决定锈色棕榈象分布的关键气候因子及其相似性要求,结合GIS插值运算和叠加功能,将气候适生区和寄主分布区进行插值和栅格运算,得出锈色棕榈象在中国的可能适生区。【结果】锈色棕榈象在中国能广泛分布于秦岭以南地区,其中高风险适生区分布在广西、广东、江西、福建、海南、台湾、香港等地。【结论】利用气候相似性分析方法可以预测出锈色棕榈象在中国适生范围,同实际已定居范围具有较好的吻合性。中国华南、华东和西南地区尤其要加强锈色棕榈象的检疫和控制。

[ Objective ] It is urgent to study on potential distribution area of the red palm weevil, Rhyncophorus ferrugineuss Fabriciu, because it is an important invasive and quarantine pest in China. [Method] The pivotal bio-climatic matching value of R. ferrugineuss output from CLIMEX model was interpolated into GIS analysis. After overlay analysis of matching value map and host map, the prediction distribution of the pest was improved. [ Result]The results indicated that R. ferrugineuss can widely distribute in south area from Qinling Mountain and the high risk areas include Guangxi, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Fujian, Hainan, Taiwan and Hongkong, etc.. [Conclusion] Analysis of bio-climatic matching provides an applied way for potential distribution area of R. ferrugineuss in China, and the results adapted to the actual distribution. South China, East China and West-south China are the crucial quarantine and control areas.