区域水资源复合系统可持续发展机制研究

Sustainable development mechanism of regional water resources complex system

区域水资源复合系统在利导因子和限制因子的共同作用下呈S型增长模式,可以用Logistic曲线(L曲线)或Gompertz曲线(G曲线)描述其发展过程。对其微分形式的分析表明,L曲线的成长期和全盛期、G曲线的成长期、全盛期和成熟期分别是其可持续发展区。对L曲线的差分形式分析表明,适当的发展速度是实现系统可持续发展的关键,应尽可能使发展速度处在最优区间,过低会影响当代人的进步,过高又会导致演化过程不稳定,甚至出现混沌。区域水资源复合系统的可持续发展过程是多阶段、多层次的组合S型曲线,可用L曲线或G曲线的起步期、成长期和全盛期作为一个周期,构造系统可持续发展的组合S型轨迹方程。最后拟合了大连市和烟台市水资源复合系统1996-2005年的发展指数,结果均为两层的组合L曲线。

The regional water resources complex system develops with S-type pattern, so the process can be described with Logistic curve（L-curve） and Gompertz curye（G-eurve）. The analysis of differential eguations shows that the growth-period and the golden-period of L curve, and the growth-period, the golden-period and the autumn-period of G curve arc the sustainable development period. The analysis of difference equation of L-curve shows that the development speed is the key factor for the sustainable water resources utilization. Lower speed will obstruct the society development, and higher speed can lead to the unsustainable development. Furthermore, the process of the sustainable development can be described with combined S-type curve, which contains the start-period, growth-period and golden-period of L curve and G-curve. At the end, a fitting is made with an example, and the result shows that the development processes of Dalian water resources complex system and Yantai water resources complex system from 1996 to 2005 are both the combined L-curve with two layers.