经济增长、生态足迹与可持续发展能力:基于浙江省的实证研究

Economic Growth,Ecological Footprint and Capability of Sustainable Development: An Empirical Research on Zhejiang Province

经济增长与生态足迹之间的演化关系是分析区域经济可持续发展能力的重要手段。本文应用生态足迹模型测算了浙江省1990—2006年的生态足迹并应用Ulanowicz的生态经济发展能力公式进行可持续发展能力评估,得到三个主要结论:①浙江省1990—2006年人均生态足迹需求不断增加,生态赤字逐年扩大。②万元GDP的生态足迹逐年下降,生态经济发展能力逐步有所增强。③代表生态经济系统稳定性的多样性指数不断下降,"浙江模式"潜伏着重大的不可持续性信息。本文认为,目前浙江等东部地区经济下滑的情况比较显著,可持续发展能力受到明显挑战。资源、环境、生态问题成为可持续发展能力的约束,而生态问题背后又是企业组织规模、产业结构、发展模式等原因。宏观调控表面看是经济问题,实质是资源环境约束的结果。这些问题相互联系并具有一定的代表性,对它们的认识与解决程度可能从根本上影响着区域乃至国家的可持续发展能力。

The dynamic relationship between economic growth and capability of sustainable development has become one of the focuses in China. This paper surveyed the ecological footprint from 1990 to 2006 in Zhejiang Province and evaluated the capability of sustainable development by applying Ulanowicz＇s formula of growth and development. Through the empirical research on Zhejiang Province, three conclusions were arrived： （1）Ecological footprint per capita and ecological deficit from 1990 to 2006 in Zhejiang Province is increasing year by year. （2）Ecological footprint per 10000 GDP tended to decline and the economic capability grows in the past years. （3）However, the economic capability growth mainly depended on the expands of ecological footprint per capita, while diversity index tended to decline. It is demonstrated that there are still some factors block the process of sustainable development in Zhejiang Province. The key point to sustainable development is to enhance the economic capability growth and diversity index. Nowadays, the rate of economic growth in East Area of China, such as Zhejiang Province, has apparently slowed down. This paper concludes that the economy-ecology paradox, even the income-happiness paradox in Zhejiang Province, is due to the enterprises＇ small scale, low technology, unfair transaction of factor-privilege, and end-of-pipe treatment industrial mode. Ostensibly, the objective of the macro-control from 2003 is the macro-economy. However, the macro-control is come from the environmental problems. Those problems are relevant and typical; thus the cognition and settlement degree of them could radically influence the sustainable development capacity of the region and the nation.