我国通货膨胀预期中的锚定效应研究

A Study on Anchoring Effect for Inflation Expectation

以心理学中的锚定理论为基础,对有限理性下的通胀预期理论进行了扩展,提出了关于通胀预期锚定效应的三个假设。利用我国1994年1月至2007年11月的数据进行研究发现,在我国通胀预期中存在着锚定效应,具体表现为:在通胀预期形成中主要锚定滞后一期的通胀率;高通胀阶段和低通胀阶段都存在通胀预期的锚定作用,但高通胀阶段的锚定作用更大;在通胀预期中对不同商品价格变动的锚定是有显著差别的,其中食品价格和衣着价格的锚定作用较大。

Based on the theory of anchoring effect in psychology, the author extends the theory of inflation expectation under near - rational .The paper puts forward 3 assumptions about anchoring effect for inflation expectation. By using data from 1994 to 2007 ,the paper studies the anchoring effect for inflation expectation in China. The conclusions as follows： the anchoring effect for inflation expectation in china is confinned; the main anchoring number is inflation rate of last period. The anchoring effect exists in high inflation phase and low inflation phase, and the effect in high phase is more significant. The paper also indicates the anchoring effect of the food price and clothes price is more significant.