二元结构转换、经济开放与服务业增长

Dual Economy Transition,Opening and the Service Sector Growth

采用1978～2005年的时间序列数据，运用协整分析、误差修正模型及Granger因果检验方法，对二元结构转换、经济开放与服务业增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果显示：二元结构转换是服务业增长的Granger原因，且在长期内对服务业增长有较强的促进作用，但短期效应并不明显；经济开放不是服务业增长的Granger原因，对服务业增长没有显著影响。

This paper analyzes the relationship between dual economy structure and opening with the service sector growth in China with 1978- 2005 time series data by means of cointegrafion method, ECM and Granger causality test . The authors find that dual economy transition Granger causes the service sector growth and has positive effect on it in the long nm but negative effect in the short nm,and opening does not Granger causes the service sector growth,which means opening has no remarkable effect on the service sector growth.