灰色系统预测方法在人力资本价值计量中的应用

Application of Gray System Forecast Method in the Measurement of Human Capital Value

科学、合理地对人力资本的价值进行预测是人力资本价值计量的前提。针对研究中缺少系统预测的不足,运用系统理论思想,通过进行人力资本价值系统分析,采用灰色系统预测方法,建立人力资本价值系统中的GM(1,1)和GM(1,n)模型,实现人力资本价值的动态、系统性预测。

The scientific estimation of the value of human capital is fundamental to econometric studies on human capital. In view of the inadequacy in systematic forecast of human capital value in extant literature, the present paper attempts to apply the system theory to the measurement of human capital. Specifically, we first build the GM （ 1,1 ） and GM （ 1, n） models on primary factors and other factors of human capital respectively, then the gray system forecast method is applied to the models to provide a dynamic and systematic estimation of human capital.