基于ECM的我国税收弹性实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Tax Elasticity of China:Based on Error Correction Model

运用时间数列和计量分析方法,利用1978—2006年我国税收收入和GDP数据,针对1978—1994年和1995—2006年两个阶段分别建立误差修正模型,对我国税收的长期弹性和短期弹性进行分析。研究结果发现:1978—1994年我国税收的长期弹性小于其短期弹性;自1995年以来,我国税收弹性发生了显著变化,税收的长期弹性大于其短期弹性。

Using the data on tax revenue and GDP of China during 1978-2006, this paper establishes the error correction model and analyzes China＇s long-run and short-run tax elasticity by the method of time series and econometric analysis. The result shows that ： China＇s long-run tax elasticity during 1978-1994 is less than the short-run tax elastieity;the obvious changes of China＇s tax elasticity have taken place since 1995 ,and the long-run tax elasticity is more than the short-run tax elasticity.