从高速增长走向和谐发展的中国经济

China Economy:From Rapid Growth to Harmonious Development

本文将中国经济快速增长的影响因素归结为7方面:工业化和城市化的快速推进为中国经济长期高速增长提供了充足动力;大众消费时代来临,消费需求成为支撑中国经济持续高速增长最稳定的因素;对外开放的深化,对中国经济具有重要推动作用;高储蓄为中国经济持续高速增长提供了充足的资金保证;丰富的劳动力供给和日益提高的劳动力素质成为中国经济持续高速增长的基本要素;技术进步是中国经济持续高速增长的重要因素;“中国模式”的经济体制改革成就了中国经济的奇迹。同时,本文认为中国经济发展面临结构失衡的压力、来自分配差距扩大的压力、面临资源和环境方面的压力和人口快速老龄化的压力。综观中国经济的全局,支撑经济快速增长的因素还没有改变,只要我们认真贯彻落实科学发展观,坚持以人为本,坚持全面协调和可持续发展,认真对待、妥善处理好发展中的各种矛盾和问题,在未来10—15年时期里,中国经济继续保持7%以上的增长速度是完全可以做到的。但是,从现在所处的发展阶段和面临的问题看,今后中国最为重要、最为迫切的是要在科学发展观的统领下保持和谐发展,更加重视协调发展,更加重视经济增长的质量和效益,更加重视结构优化,更加重视深层次的改革。

This article examine the main factors that have driven China＇s rapid economic growth over the last 28 years： rapid industrialization and urbanization provides powerful engine for China＇s long economic growth,with mass consumption age around the corner,consumption demand will become an important engine for China＇s long term economic growth;further opening-up and reform play an important role in sustaining China＇s fast economic growth,large amount of savings provides adequate financial support to China＇s sustained rapid economic growth;rich labor supply becomes a basic element supporting China＇s sustained rapid economic growth,effects of institutional innovation and technological progress have been prominent during the long time economic growth in China.The paper points out that China has created a world class miracle,but has also encountered and accumulated many problems.Particularly,problems,such as imbalance of economic structure,widened income discrepancy and higher environmental pressure,have increased the cost of economic development,reduced efficiency of economic development and have become the bottleneck constraining China＇s long-term economic development.Reviewing the whole situation of China＇s economy,the factors supporting China＇s rapid economic growth have not changed.If China adopt the scientific view of development,stick to the principles of human-oriented management,and develop economy in a holistic,harmonious and sustainable fashion,and properly deal with various conflicts and problems facing China＇s development,it is possible to maintain the growth speed at 7% in next 10-15 years.However,considering the current development stage and various problems,the most important and most urgent issue in China is not the simple pursuit of growth speed;instead,we shall achieve harmonious development in line with the scientific view of development.