湖北省洪湖市家畜血吸虫感染危险因素非条件logistic回归分析

Unconditional logistic regression analysis on risk factor of domestic animal's infection of Schistosoma japonicum at Honghu city

目的了解日本血吸虫病在重度流行区对家畜的感染情况及其危险因素。方法追踪观察两组牛群在1个感染季节后的感染情况、螺情、接触疫水及疫水变化等因素，对其进行了单因素与多因素非条件logistic回归分析。结果基线感染率为17．33％，其中黄牛感染率（17.69％）高于水牛感染率（16.98％）。接触疫水处水体尾蚴密度（OR=10．40，95％CI；2．43～44．50）、年龄（OR=0．194，95％CI：0.770～0．049）、性别（OR=2．120。95％CI：1．009～4．453）有无治疗过（OR=1．277，95％CI；0．938-2．754）、7～10月疫水接触指数（OR=2．083，95％CI：1．12～3．89）、牧地距阳性螺点距离（OR=2．614，95％CI：1．11-6．16）等为主要危险因素。结论在日本血吸虫病重度流行区存在较快感染趋势，且家畜血吸虫感染危险因素顺序为：接触疫水处水体尾蚴密度、年龄、放牧地点距阳性钉螺存在点距离、7～10月疫水接触情况。

In order to research the infectious and the risk factor of the domestic animal infected with the schistosomiasis in serious prevailing area. The observation was adopted at experimental region and the cattles were chosed as the main monitoring objects, and survey on local schistosomiasis condition was performed. Then, the reinfectious situation of the two groups of cattle after a infection season was traced, and the factors including the instance that they contacted the infectious water and the changing situation of the infectious water at locals were inuestigated. Finally, the single factor analysis and the mutifactor unconditional logistic regression analysis were carried out in the experiment. The result showed that the base-line infection rate was 17.33%, and cattles＇ infection rate （17.69%） was higher than buffalo＇s infection rate （16.98%）. The main risk factors of the schistosomiasis infection were exposure to cercaria＇s density of water body of water place of the epidemic disease （OR= 10.40,95% CI： 2.43-44. 50）, age （OR=0. 194,95% CI： 0. 770-0. 049）, sex （OR =2. 120,95% CI： 1. 009-4. 453） ,to have treatment or not （OR = 1. 277,95 % CI： 0. 938-2. 754）, index of contacting contagious water from July to October（OR =2. 083,95% CI： 1.12-3. 89）, the distance between residence and infected snail position spot （OR=2. 614,95% CI= 1.11- 6. 16）. The research indicated that the trend of the quick infection extists in the mid-epidemic-striken lake beach areas, and this experiment primarily screened out the main risk factors of the infection as following order, eerearia＇s density in the water body of the epidemic place, ages, the distance between residence and infected snail spot position and situation of contacting contagious water during July to October.