从货币流通量看清代前期的经济增长与波动

Economic Growth and Fluctuation in the Early Qing from the Perspective of Monet Circulation

文章在探讨清前期的货币体系及经济货币化进程的基础上,对1651-1860年间的货币流通量进行了粗略估算。进而依据清前期的货币流通趋势,主要从宏观层面考察了清代前期二百年间的经济增长与波动。认为18世纪是中国传统经济发展的鼎盛时期,白银的货币化和供给量的大量增加,以及由此推动的长途贩运和地域大商帮的兴盛,工农业生产的提高共同反映了这一时期经济的增长。与此同时,随着商品经济发展和货币化进程的加快,货币供给量和政府的财政行为对于经济的影响日益凸显。由于经济中货币供给量的不足,分别在清代初期、嘉庆和道光时期出现了三次比较大的经济萧条,对当时的社会经济发展造成了严重影响。该文的研究表明,学术界关于清代经济发展中的"停滞论"和"增长论"或许仅仅是基于不同时段和不同侧面的考察,在一定程度上可以得到协调。

Based on an examination of the monetary system and the monetization of the economy in the early Qing, this article estimates the approximate amount of currency in circulation and further explores the macroeconomic growth and fluctuations from 1651 to 1860 based on monetary circulation. The author believes that the eighteenth century was the heyday of Chinese traditional economic development, and that the monetization and sharp increase in the supply of silver stimulated long - distance trade and the rise of regional merchants groups, and increased industrial and agricultural production, reflecting the overall economic development of this period. Along with commoditization and monetization of the economy, monetary supplies and government financial behavior had an increasing influence on the economy. The shortage of monetary supplies gave rise to three economic depressions ： the early years of Qing, Jiaqing reign, and Daoguang reign. This study clearly indicates that the scholarly debate over the ＂stagnation＂ or ＂growth＂ of the Qing economy perhaps merely depends on the period of time and aspect of the economy one examines. The two viewpoints can be somewhat reconciled.