奥运与北京房地产价格的变化--基于DD法的分析

Staging Olympic Games and Real Estate Price in Beijing:Based on DD Method

研究奥运影响,区分奥运因素是一个重要的技术问题,目前国际上尚无公认的方法。本文采用双重差分估计,对有奥运期和无奥运期、有奥运城市和无奥运城市两种情况分别进行差分估计,考察奥运因素对北京房地产价格的影响。研究表明,我国正处在快速城市化阶段,城市规模扩大对住房需求拉动是影响房价上涨的重要因素,奥运因素仅是强化了宏观经济周期影响房地产价格的波动幅度,而不会改变其周期波动的趋势。

About Olympic Games Impact research,isolating the Games factor from non-Games factors is a critical technique.Differences-in-Differences method is adopted in this paper by taking Beijing with Olympic Games as the treatment group and other non-Olympic Games host cities as the ref- erence group,to seek for non-Olympic Games reference objects.At the same time,time series is also used to compare the succession of Olympic impact,the result can be made a brief forecast a- bout real estate price in Beijing during post-Games period.It is concluded that the Olympic factor only enlarges the degree of increasing or decreasing in the economic cycle other than changing the tendency of the price cycle of the real estate.