天山北坡经济带耕地变化的驱动力研究

Studies on Change and Driving Forces of the Cultivated Land in Economic Belt on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains

根据天山北坡经济带的统计资料,分析了1990-2004年该区域耕地面积变化的趋势。运用主成分分析法对影响耕地面积变化的人口因素、经济因素、收入消费因素和技术进步因素四类13个指标进行定量研究。在此基础上,建立了多元线性回归模型。

Based on statistical data of Economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the trend of cultivated land use from 1990 to 2004 are discussed. Then a quantity study is made on the forth chosen driving forces factors which affect change of cultivated land by using Principal Component Analysis. A linear multi-regression model is made in the end.