黄土丘陵区纸坊沟流域农业生态经济安全评价

Safety evaluation of the agricultural eco-economics of Zhifanggou watershed in the Hilly-gully region of Loess Plateau

以近70年纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统演变过程为基础,利用国家"九五"科技攻关项目中所提出的评价指标体系,对纸坊沟流域不同发展阶段标志年份的农业生态经济安全状况进行了评价,得出:农业生态经济系统在1938、2000、2005年处于亚安全状态,1958、1975年处于极端不安全状态,1985、19901、995年处于不安全状态。通过对农业生态经济安全变化驱动力的分析,预测了纸坊沟流域农业生态经济安全的发展趋势,提出了黄土丘陵区实现农业生态经济安全的策略:以培育主导产业为中心,完善农业系统循环链网,调整产业结构,实现农业资源的有效、永续利用。

Based on the developing process of agricultural eco-economic system of Zhifanggou watershed nearly 70 years, and the evaluation index system which was suggested in national ninth five years subject, the situation of the agricultural eco-economics snfety in mark years of different development stage of Zhifanggou watershed was evaluatied. It was concluded that, the agricultural eco-economic system had been the situation of sub-safety in 1938, 2000, 2005, extreme unsafe in 1958, 1975, and unsafe in 1985, 1990, 1995. Through the analysis of driving force for the change of agricultural eco-economics safety, it may be forecasted that the developing trend of the agricultural eco-economics safety, and some proposals to achieve agricultural cs safety, focusing on the cultivation of leading industry, improving circular chain of the system, and adjusting industry structure, achieving the effective and sustain able use of agricultural resource were suggested.