100多年来东亚地区主要河流径流变化

Discharge Changes of the Eight Large Rivers in East Asia during the Last More Than 100 Years

应用东亚地区8条主要河流100多年来的径流观测资料,用线性趋势分析不同时段径流变化趋势.结果表明:1870年来东亚南部(主要发源于我国境内)的河流径流均表现出减少趋势;而最近1930年以来,东亚南部河流均为减少趋势,北部河流(西伯利亚3条大河)则表现为增加趋势,但年际变化存在着较大差异;1951年以来大部分河流径流变化趋势基本与1930年以来相同,但长江下游大通站由于中下游地区90年代降水增加表现为增加趋势.

In this paper the runoff variation tendencies of the eight large rivers in East Asia during the last more than100 years are analyzed based on the long-term annual discharge data at 12 main/outlet hydrologic stations of Lancang/Mekong River, Zhujiang （Xijiang） River, Yangtze River, Yellow River, Songhuajiang/Amur River, Original from China, and the Lena, Yenisei and Ob in Siberia, by using the linear regression methodology. It has been found that the annual discharges of the rivers in Southeast Asian, including Lancangjiang/Mekong River, Yangtze River, Yellow River and Songhuajiang River, have a negative variation tendency while the Lena, Yenisei and Ob rivers in Siberia of the Northeast Asia have a positive discharge variation tendency during the periods of 1870--2000, 1930--2000 and 1950--2000, except for a positive one at the Datong Station in Low Yangtze river during the 1950--2000. The positive discharge variation tendency at Datong station during 1950--2000 is caused by the precipitation increase in the Low Yangtze River during the 1990s. It is needed to point out that the discharge data at Haerbin Station of Songhuajiang River before 1930 is systematic low bias comparing to the discharge data at the Haerbin Station of the Upper Songhuagjiang River and at the Mukdahan Station in the Low Songhuangjiang/Amur River during 1897--1985.