季度税收与季度GDP的协调关系

The Coordination between Seasonal Tax Revenue and Seasonal GDP

税收增长连年超GDP增长,引起人们对税收与经济增长关系是否协调的疑虑。本文对1994年分税制改革以来的季度税收资料,进行季节调整和HP滤波,然后从总体趋势上就税收与GDP的协调关系进行了讨论,包括季度税负、税收弹性、季节指数等。基本结论是:总体趋势上税收与经济指标之间是协调的,但增长率关系上存在着税收超经济增长的现实,季度之间也存在着一定程度的不平衡。

The tax revenue has increased faster than GDP for several years, this phenomena has attracted wide attention to the coordination between tax revenue and GDP, So we discuss the coordination between tax revenue and GDP since the Tax-sharing system reform in 1994 on the basis of main trend including seasonal revenue, tax elasticity, seasonal index, etc., using the seasonal adjusting and HP filtering method, and we find that the tax revenue mainly coordinates with economic index, while the tax increased faster than GDP, and there are some imbalance between seasonal data.