区域农业用水驱动因子及驱动贡献评估分析——以河北沧州为例

Regional Agricultural Water Driver Factors and Contribution Ratio Analysis for Cangzhou District of Hebei Province

针对河北省沧州地区农业用水紧张的现状与事实,采用投影寻踪回归方法,对造成这一事实的人为和自然因子进行了量化评估,结果发现:人为因素和自然因素的贡献权重为0.787 6∶0.212 4。自然因子中的降水、气温、自产水的贡献权重分别为0.119 50、.060 5和0.032 3。在种植业内部,主要驱动因子是冬小麦、玉米、棉花、蔬菜等主要作物的灌溉用水,贡献权重分别为32.2%、6.8%、4.0%、12.2%。

According to the tense situation of agricultural water in Cangzhou Region of Hebei Province, the human factors and natural factors causing the situation are quantitatively evaluated by using projection pursuit regression （PPR） method. The result shows that the contribution ratio of human factors and natural factors is 0. 787 6 and 0. 212 4, respectively. In the natural factors, the contribution ratio of rainfall, temperature and self-production water is 0. 119 5, 0. 060 5 and 0. 032 3. In the planting factors, the main driver factors include the irrigation water of wheat, corn, cotton, vegetables, and the contribution ratio of which is 32. 2%, 6. 8%, 4. 0% and 12.2%.