基于气象灾害预测的作物种植比例优化模型及应用研究

Study on Optimization Model of Crops Planting Scale Based on Meteorological Disasters Forecast and Its Application

灌区作物种植比例通常是根据农业总体区划、作物种植习惯和耕作习惯确定的。在灌区规划中,不同的作物种植比,对灌区的水资源和供水工程的规模具有决定性的影响。基于准确的长期天气预测,建立了在复种指数一定的条件下,即将发生的某种气象灾害年型的情况下的作物种植比优化确定性模型和随机模型。实例计算结果表明,采用2种模型进行灌区作物种植比进行优化,对克服减产风险具有实际意义。

The crops planting scale in the irrigation district is usually determined according to the agriculture general programming, the crops planting and cultivation custom. In irrigation district programming, different crops planting scale has decisive effects on the scale of the water resources and water-supply project. Based on accurate long-term weather forecasts, the deterministic and random models for the crops planting scale optimization are established under the definite condition of the multiple cropping indexes and the circumstance of upcoming meteorological disasters year. The results of example calculation show that using the two models to optimize the crops planting scale in irrigation district has practical significance for overcoming the risk of production reduction.