外来物种豚草入侵的事故树分析

An analysis of the alien species Ambrosia artemisiifolia invasion by faulttree method and risk assessment

为减缓豚草入侵对农业生产造成的经济损失和对人类健康造成的危害,采用系统安全分析中的事故树分析方法,将豚草入侵作为一生态事件,对影响豚草入侵生态系统的各因素进行逻辑分析,建立了豚草入侵事故树。求取最小割集和最小径集,得到豚草入侵事件发生的可能途径有64条,而预防途径只有4条。对事故树进行结构重要度排序,结果表明,豚草种子活力强、数量多、具有发芽及发育成成熟植株并结籽的能力,豚草入侵时的适宜土壤条件,豚草花粉传播授粉时的空气湿度低及光照强度适中,以及多年生植物替代对豚草入侵的影响不大是豚草在我国大面积扩散的4个主要原因。本文提出了豚草入侵的生态防治措施,这对抑制豚草在我国进一步扩散蔓延具有重要意义。

This paper is to introduce its authors＇ investigation and analysis of the Ambrosia artemisiifolia invasion by using the so-called fault-tree method for risk assessment. As a matter of fact, Ambrosia artemisiifolia has become an ecological invasion plant-bitter weed spreading over nineteen provinces of our country since it was introduced into China from abroad. Moreover, the tendency of wide outspread has been intensified. Therefore, the invasion will surely bring about serious damage both to human health and the agricultural production. In doing the research, we have first of all established the fault-tree of such invasion and analyzed all the factors which influence it in the ecological system. Actually, four mainly relevant factors of invasion have been found through calculating the minimal cut sets and the most striking set of the paths. By fault-tree method, we have found 64 minimal cut sets and 4 most striking set of the paths. In the final part of the essay, proposal has been put forward so as to alleviate and abate the above said invasion damage and reduce the economic loss, along with some available ecological prevention measures to halt its further spreading.