基于重心模型与泰勒系数的陕西省空间差异

Research on the Regional Economic Disparity in Shanxi Province Based on Gravity Model and Theil Coefficient Analysis

文章通过重心模型以及泰勒系数对陕西省1989-2006年区域增长格局与地区差距进行了实证分析。分析结果表明,国家西部大开发战略实施以后陕北地区增速明显加快,区域增长重心持续向东北转移;通过泰勒系数及其分解的演变显示,三大地区间差距持续不断扩大,并且地区间差距的扩大快于总体经济差距的扩大,地带内的差距一直是影响陕西区域差距的主要影响力量,但是各地带内部地区经济差距在1995年之后呈现不同的特征。通过分析我们也注意到在1999-2006年陕北地区迅速崛起的同时,伴随区域增长格局"热点"的转移,热点区域内的地区差距会存在一个缩小的趋势,但是局部实证的结论能否适用于更大的范围区域内还需要进一步的检验。

In this article we take the empirical analysis of regional growth patterns and Local disparities of shaanxi province among 1989 -2006 through the gravity model and Theil coefficient. The results of the empirical analysis show that after the implementation of the national western development strategy there is a accelerated markedly growth in northern Shaanxi, i. e. , the economical center of gravity of the sustained regional transfer to the northeast consistently ; through the analysis of Taylor coefficient and its evolution of decomposition, we get to know that the regional disparity between the three areas of shaanxi continuing to expand, and the expansion of regional economic disparities expand faster than the expansion of overall economic disparities, but the local disparity has always been the mainly affection to the overall economic disparities of shaanxi, at the same time the local disparity shows different characteristics after 1995, that is as follows： The local disparity of southern part of Shaanxi has been decreasing all the time, the contribution to the overall economic disparity is the smallest, in Guanzhong area , the local disparity is in the rising trend, while in the northern part of Shaanxi the local disparity is in the middle of them but after 1999 it in the falling trends. By empirical analysis We have also noticed that while the rapid growth in northern Shaanxi among of 1999 -2006, i. e. , with the transfer of the ＂hot spots＂ in the regional pattern, there is a narrowing trend in the hot spots of the region, but whether local empirical conclusions can be applied in a larger area or not also needs further examination.