国家利益视角下自然人流动政策选择——基于probit模型的实证研究

Movement of Natural Persons' Policy Choices under the National Interests——Based on the Empirical Analysis of Probit Model

自然人流动为近年来各国发展服务贸易所关注。虽然研究表明,自然人流动自由化可以促进世界经济增长,缓解发达国家劳动力短缺压力,实际中却存在发达国家限制外国自然人流入的高壁垒政策的矛盾现象,而未有研究对此现象加以解释。从国家利益的视角出发,利用probit模型,在澳大利亚生产率委员会研究小组对自然人流动壁垒测度结果的基础上,对一国自然人流动壁垒政策选择的影响因素进行了实证分析,指出一国自然人流动壁垒政策的选择不仅受经济因素的影响,更受到非经济因素的作用,并对中国自然人流动给出政策建议。

Movement of Natural Persons （MNP） is a new subject of trade in services＇ development.Although there are some researches showing that the liberalization of MNP will improve the world economic development and feed the labor shortage in developed countries, a paradox existed in labor shortage and high MNP barriers in reality. And there is no research about this paradox. So under the national interests aspect of the trade policy choice theory, and based on the research on measuring MNP barriers of australia productivity commission, this paper empirically analyzed the factors effecting MNP＇s policy choices, pointed out that including economic and non-economic factors, and gave some suggestions on China＇s MNP.