财政分权、经济增长与外贸依存度——基于1978～2007年改革开放30年数据的实证分析

Fiscal Decentralization,Economic Growth and Foreign Trade Dependency:An Empirical Research based on the Data of 1978～2007

本文以我国1978～2007年的数据,运用协整、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数研究了我国财政分权、经济增长对外贸依存度的动态影响。研究发现:长期内,财政分权会推进外贸依存度的提高,而短期内财政分权对外贸依存度的作用不显著;以人均GDP衡量的经济增长,在短期内可提高外贸依存度水平,而在长期中却会降低外贸依存度。分析表明,财政分权引致的地方政府为经济增长而产生的对FDI和出口的激励,以及贸易升级、产业结构调整、内需导向型经济增长模式,是财政分权、经济增长和外贸依存度之间动态关系产生的内在逻辑。

Based on the data of 1978～2007,using cointegration analysis,Granger causality test and the impulse response function,theis article found that China's fiscal decentralization and economic growth have the dynamic impacts on foreign trade dependency.And in the long period,fiscal decentralization can impulse the degree of foreign trade dependency,but in the short run,fiscal decontralization has no obvious effects on foreign trade dependency;per capita GDP can enhance the degree of foreign trade dependency for a long time,however,in the long run,it can depress the foreign trade dependency.The analysis discovers that fiscal decentralization results in the promotion of FDI and exports by the local governments for the aim of economic growth.And economic growth leads to the promotion of FDI and trade,the upgrade of industries and the economic mode of domestic demand orientation.All of these are the internal logic of dynamic relation among the fiscal decentralization,economic growth and foreign trade dependency.