加工贸易进口、一般贸易进口与经济增长的关系——一个协整和影响机制的经验研究

Relationship Between Import and Economic Growth:An Empirical Study of Co-integration and Influence Mechanism

为了明确进口对经济增长的作用,本文分别考察了加工贸易进口、一般贸易进口与我国经济增长的关系。本文首先用人均国内生产总值对两个贸易变量进行回归,然后建立协整和误差修正模型分析进口与经济增长的长短期均衡关系,最后将人均资本、技术水平、人力资本存量和制度变化分别对加工贸易进口、一般贸易进口进行回归分析,得出进口对经济增长的影响途径。结论是,加工贸易进口与我国经济增长的关系较为紧密,主要是通过影响制度变革促进经济增长,其短期效应较为明显;一般贸易进口对经济增长的作用发挥较为迟缓,但两者存在长期均衡关系,作用途径是人均资本的提升。

This paper analyzed how to import in processing trade and common trade facilitate economic growth.Co-integration and error correction models showed the long-term and short-term relationship between import and economic growth.By using variables of per capita capital,technology,human resource and institutional adjustment,the regression analysis on the import in processing and common trade were done respectively,and it found the way that can influence the economic growth.The conclusion is that the import in trade processing has significant short-term effect on economic growth through institutional adjustment,and the import in common trade facilitates economy by improving per capita capital in long-term.