基于GM(1,2)的中长期负荷区间预测模型

The Med-long Term Power Load Interval Forecasting Model Based on GM(1,2) Model

根据电力负荷预测中重视负荷成因和区间预测的指导思想,结合传统预测方法的优点,以灰色理论为基础,运用灰色GM(1,N)模型,分别将三个产业的GDP与用电量结合进行预测,并修正模型系数。同时结合二产GDP高、中、低三个水平进行区间预测。结果证明结合影响因素的预测效果较好,预测区间范围合理,可作为中长期负荷预测工具之一。

It is important to analyze the components and to predict the interval of power load. According to these ideas and to incorporate the advantage of traditional method, a GM （ 1, N） model based on gray theory is proposed. The GDP and power consumption of the three industries is used in this model. And the parameters in the model are rectified. The high, medium, and low GDP level of the second industry is analyzed to perform interval prediction. The experiment result shows that the proposed method with impact factor can predict well, and the predicted interval is reasonable. So this method can be used as a med - long term power load forecasting tool.