铁路网系统运输能力可靠性理论研究

Study on the Theory of Carrying Capacity Reliability of Railway Networks

从可靠性理论和交通网络流特性出发,概述了国内外关于能力可靠性研究方面的最新进展。以铁路路网系统运输能力系列概念为基础,提出路网系统运输能力可靠性定义,并分析其产生原因。考虑到铁路网实际运营的各种不确定性因素,提出基于概率的不确定性情景的路网系统运输能力可靠性计算模型,并以K短路和复合遗传算法为核心进行编程计算,算例表明,该理论及模型正确,计算结果较符合铁路网现状,为铁路路网规划和管理提供客观量化依据,具有理论和应用价值。

From the angle of the reliability theories and specialties of railway traffic networks, the paper gives an outline of the up to date studies on the carrying capacity reliability at home and abroad. Based on those new series of concepts of railway network carrying capacity, the definition and calculating model of railway network carrying capacity reliability are given considering uncertain scenarios of probability, and K-shortest and GA are given. Real instances show that the theory, model and computational solution are correct, and the railway ad- ministrations can know clearly about the carrying capacity reliability of the whole network, make out more rea- sonable schemes of the flow route, and choose more correct decision-making of constructing railway networks. The concept and calculating method of network capacity reliability are promising in both theory and practical use.