航空业务量的季节性预测方法及其评价

Methods of Air Traffic′s Seasonal Forecast and Evaluation

通过对中国航空运输业务总周转量、客运量、货邮运量的月度和季度数据的预测分析,评价了Holt-Winters法和ARIMA方法在航空业务量季节性预测中的预测效果。研究结果表明,两种方法都有较高的预测精度,但季节性ARIMA方法要优于Holt-Winters法,使用季度数据和ARIMA方法的预测效果最好。

By forecasting Chinese air traffic involving the freight turnover, the number of passengers and the volume of air cargo with the monthly and seasonal data, the Holt-Winters method and ARIMA method have been evaluated. The results show that seasonal ARIMA （auto-regression-integrated-reaving average） method is better than Holt-Winters method although both methods work well and ARIMA methgd with seasonal data produce the best forecasts.