摘要
全面、充分地分析了影响城市用水量预测的各种因素,并逐一进行分析、分类、筛选和综合评定。结合预测的功能目标,对10类主要影响因素采用权重打分法的办法,在预测前优先遴选权重值比较高的敏感因子,为后续的预测模型建立筛选出最有价值的数据序列,并根据这些敏感因子来建立适宜的预测模型,目的是规避预测结果的非关系成分扰动,并为快速建立预测模型限定合理的选择范围。
All the potential factors affecting city water demand is widely analyzed, classified and assessed in detail in this paper. Using priority weight analysis, the preferred and sensitive factors is selected before forecasting, and then suitable forecasting model is erected as to the before results. With the above selecting style, the unrelated factors which can interfere normal forecasting results can be eluded and the fitted forecasting model can be rapidly and reasonably framed.
出处
《能源环境保护》
2008年第4期59-61,64,共4页
Energy Environmental Protection
基金
上海市科学技术委员会科研计划项目课题(052112031)
关键词
城市用水量
影响因素
权重打分法
预测模型
city water demand
affecting factors
priority weight assessment
forecasting model
