用多元模糊回归模型预测麦长管蚜种群动态

THE MULTIPLE FUZZY REGRESSION MODEL FOR FORECASTING THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF Macrosiphum granarium

本文介绍了多元模糊回归模型预测麦长管蚜的方法。对山东省金乡县１９８２～１９８９年共８ａ小麦穗期麦长管蚜发生程度的历史观测资料进行了数量分析，建立了多元模糊模型（模糊隶属函数集）。通过对历史资料的回检，拟合率达１００％，以１９９０年的观测资料为独立样本进行试报，结果与实际一致。

From the analysis for a model of Multiple Fuzzy Regression,the authors deduced the Multiple Model (Fuzzy set) forecasting the occurrence degree of Macrosiphum granarium(Kirby)for 8 years of 1982～ 1989 in Jin xiang,Shan dong Province,The results tested the pest data showed that the fitting rate was 100%,and that accuracy of forecast was right.This new method may be also be tried for forecasting of the population dynamics of insect pests.