购买力平价对人民币汇率的适用性研究

Study of Adaptability of Fair Purchase Price to RMB Exchange Rate

文章结合经济背景及经济政策,采用以购买力平价模型为代表的传统汇率决定模型对我国人民币汇率水平进行实证分析与研究。研究表明购买力平价理论及模型能够对我国人民币汇率的发展趋势做出有效的解释。此外,折线回归模型(虚变量回归模型)的回归结果表明:我国的人民币汇率确实受到人民币汇率制度安排因素的影响,使得人民币汇率出现跳跃式的发展,呈现出了折线形状,从拟合优度来看,折线模型能够很好地解释我国人民币汇率的政策及制度效应。但是我们也应当看到,在我国汇率制度改革后,我国国内物价的变化对人民币汇率的影响不显著,真正对人民币汇率的走势有显著影响的因素来自国外(美国)的影响。最后,提出了相关的政策建议。

Under the background of current economic policy, China＇s RMB exchange rate level is analyzed and studied on the basis of an exemplary model, in which fair purchase price determines the exchange rate.The study shows that the model is effective in explaining the development of RMB exchange rate.The polygonal line regression model shows that RMB exchange rate is indeed affected by exchange rate policy. However,after the reform of China＇s exchange rate system, the change of the price within China does not obviously affect RMB exchange rate,but the real influence on RMB exchange rate is from foreign countries. Finally, some suggestions are put forward to solve the problem.