应用捕获-再捕获分析唐海县1995-2006年恶性肿瘤流行趋势

A Study of the Epidemic Tendency for Malignancies in Tanghai County during 1995 and 2006 Using Capture-recapture Method

目的了解震后20年唐海县恶性肿瘤的流行特征及变化趋势,以指导今后的肿瘤防制工作。方法通过唐山市五大医院及唐海县医院收集发病数据和死亡数据(第一来源),通过唐海县派出所收集死亡数据(第二来源),应用捕获-再捕获方法估计肿瘤发病率并研究其流行趋势。结果估计唐海县12年来恶性肿瘤发病3066例。唐海县恶性肿瘤发病率呈逐年上升的趋势。唐海县恶性肿瘤发病前五位依次是肺癌、肝癌、胃癌、乳腺癌、结肠癌。全部恶性肿瘤的发病高峰年龄为65岁组,其中乳腺癌的发病年龄早,在45岁组达高峰。结论建立标准化肿瘤登记报告系统,对于了解和掌握恶性肿瘤流行动态及进行肿瘤防制非常必要。

Objective To review the incidence rate of malignant tumor in Tanghai county from 1995 to 2006 for providing information for local government. Methods Collected incidence informatlon（first south） and death records of malignant tumor from the 5 biggest hospitals in Tengshan downtown. Collected death records from police substation in Tenghai County and selected those died of prevalent malignant diseases as the second source. The incidence rate and tendency of malignant tumor was evaluated with Capture - recapture Method. Results Computing that there were 3066 person got cancer between 1995 and 2006 of Tanghai County. The incidence rate of malignant tumor in Tanghai county was continuing raised during the last 12 years. The peak of incidence rate of all malignant tumor is at age group 65 to 75 while it is at age group 45 to 55 for breast cancer. Conclusion To establish the standardized, regular system of malignant tumor registration in every county and city is important to the prevention and control of malignancies.