天然气消费的影响因素及灰色关联分析

Influencing Factors on Piped Natural Gas Market and Gray Correlation Analysis

天然气消费的主要影响因素有国民经济、能源政策、人口、天然气管道的建设、产业结构、能源消费结构。分别用弹性系数法、相关分析法和灰色关联分析法对各个影响因素与天然气消费量的关系、各影响因素之间以及影响因素与天然气消费量之间的相关性、各影响因素与天然气消费量的关联性进行了分析。将灰色关联分析法与相关性分析法相结合,以在高度相关的因素中取关联度较大的因素为原则,天然气消费建模所选择的解释变量确定为人均GDP值、第二产业产值和人口。

The factors influencing on natural gas consumption involve many aspects such as national economy, energy policy,population,construction of natural gas pipelines,industrial structure and energy consumption structure. Elastic coefficient method, correlation analysis method, gray correlation analysis method are adopted to analyze the relations of each influencing factor on natural gas consumption, the correlativity between each influencing factor and the influencing factor and consumption of natural gas as well as the association between each influencing factor and natural gas consumption. By combining the gray correlation analysis method with the correlativity analysis method and taking the most important association factor from the higher degree of correlation factors as a principle,the interpretation variations to be selected for setting up natural gas consumption model is determined as GDP (gross Domestic Product), the output value of Second Industry and population.