热带气旋及其预测预警技术

Tropical Cyclone Disasters and Related Forecasting and Pre-warning Techniques

本文分析了近几十年来全球热带气旋所带来的灾害对人类社会和军事活动的影响,概括了全球气候变暖和未来对全球热带气旋活动的影响。对目前世界各国在热带气旋的预报、监测预警技术和水平进行了详细分析,探讨了预测预报和监测预警方面存在的关键技术问题,提出了热带气旋研究和预测预警技术方法研究领域的几个重大的前沿科学问题。

The authors analyze the impacts of disastrous tropical cyclones on human society in recent decades all over the word, and the future possible variations of the global tropical cyclones due to global warming. Based on detailed synthesized evaluation of the contemporary forecasting and pre-warning techniques of tropical cyclones, the authors discusses about some the key issues in this area, and put forward several significant frontal S＆T problems in tropical cyclone research and its forecasting and pre-warning methodology at present.