用模糊聚类分型方法作盛夏南海热带气旋路径预报

Difference of QBO structure between East Asia Monsoon Region and south Asia Monsoon Region

本文对1960～2002年盛夏在南海海域活动的热带气旋进行分析,引入模糊数学理论中的模糊动态聚类分析方法,对欧洲气象中心(ECMWF)500hPa层位势高度场的格点资料进行形势分类,用计算机自动寻找最佳相似组合,进行天气形势分类,然后选取与热带气旋路径密切相关的环流场、物理量动力因子及自身特性因子,用多元回归方法建立盛夏南海热带气旋路径预报模式,结果表明该模式预报能力有明显提高。

This paper analyzes the midsummer tropical cyclone in the South China Sea area during 1960002, introduces fuzzy dynamic clustering analysis method of fuzzy math theory, categories situation with European weather center （ECMWF） 500hPa height grid data, computer automatic search for the most simulates combination,categories weather situation, and then select circulation field, physical power factor and own characteristics factor with tropical cyclone path closely related, establish the South China Sea midsummer tropical cyclone path forecast model with multiple regression analysis methods, the result shows that forecast capacity of the model improves obviously.