经济系统的三种奈特风险及特征

Three Knight Risks and Their Characteristics in an Economic System

奈特风险是不能由单一概率框架来描述的不确定性风险,经济战略决策、风险投资、金融操纵和管理创新等都与其关系密切,其研究对扩展经济理论适用范围、解决战略决策和风险管理等具有重要意义。目前已知的奈特风险有多逻辑冲突型、第一次没经验或经验不收敛型、平均值无意义或赌不起型等多种。

Unlike conventional risks that are governed by probability statistical rules, Knight risks are a category of uncertainty that cannot be described by a single probability framework. In an economic system, issues concerning strategic decision-making, venture investment, financial manipulation, and management innovation are all related to Knight risks. At present, the three important known Knight risks include the multi-logic conflict-style risk, Knight risk caused by first- time trial without experience or by experience non-convergence, and the Knight risk that has no average-value meaning or cannot afford to bet. The study of these risks is of great significance in expanding the area of application of economic theories and solving practical problems like strategic decision-making and risk management.