具有技术许可联盟的R&D投资决策

R&D Investment Decision with Technology Licensing Alliance

本文开发了具有技术许可联盟的R&D投资决策模型。考虑了技术许可前后市场结构的变化,利用连续时间阈值自回归过程来模型这一非线性变化的特征,根据实物期权定价理论和博弈理论,给出了R&D投资项目的价值和最优投资规则。通过数值分析讨论了技术许可前后的收益期望增长率和不确定性以及许可合同中竞争者进入市场的时间参数对投资决策的影响。

this paper considers the market structure which is affected by firm＇s licensing decision. We develop and apply a real option modeling framework where the underlying state variable can be described by continuous time threshold autoregressive process. We derive the value of R＆D project and investment rules, and use numerical analysis to discuss these effect of growth rate and uncertainty of the R＆D project revenue and licensing arrangement on the value of R＆D project and investment rules.