FDI与湖南产业结构关系的实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Relationship Between FDI and Industrial Structure in Hunan Province

对湖南的产业结构和三次产业利用FDI的现状进行了分析,利用1983～2006年的统计数据,运用协整分析技术、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验,对FDI与产业结构变动之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,FDI与产业结构变动之间存在正向的协整关系,FDI是产业结构变动的重要原因;在短期FDI偏离了产业结构的长期均衡水平,但短期波动对长期均衡的回调速度较快。进而,就模型得出的结论提出了若干建议。

This paper firstly analyzes the status of industrial structure and the three times＇ use of FDI by industries. Based on the statistics in 1983-2006, the paper makes an empirical research on the relationship between FDI and industrial structure changes by using the co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test. The results shows that there exists a positive and co-integrated relationship between FDI and industrial structure changes, FDI plays an important role in adjusting industrial structure in Hunan, in short-term, FDI deviates the long-term equilibrium of industrial structure, but its adjustment is rapid. This paper puts forward some suggestions according to the empirical results.