流通业发展方式转变实证研究——以浙江省为例

Empirical Study on the Transformation of Circulation Industry Development Mode——Based on Zhejiang Province

文章建立了流通业发展方式转变评价指标体系,以浙江省为例,利用1980-2006年统计数据,对流通业全要素生产率进行了估算,得到相应结论。运用因子分析和计量分析方法,论证了TFP与四个公共因子之间存在长期协整关系,得出以下基本结论:市场化、城市化等诸多因素对流通业发展方式转变具有正向作用;流通业结构还不够优化;简单劳动的投入不利于流通业技术进步,人力资本对流通业发展方式转变具有积极推进作用。对此,文章提出了相应的建议。

This article establishes an evaluation index system for circulation industry transformation in the mode of development. Based on the data of Zhejiang Province between 1980 - 2006, this study estimates the TFP in the circulation industry and reaches the corresponding conclusions. Then, by means of factor analysis and quantitative analysis, this article demonstrates the long- term co- integration relationship between circulation industry TFP and four public factors.. It has been found that many factors, such as market, city, and so on, have played a posit;re role in circulation industry transformation in the mode of development; The circulation industry structure is not sufficiently optimized; The simple labor investment does not advantage the circulation industry technology advancement; The human capital has the positive advancement in circulation industry transformation in the mode of development. Accordingly, the article puts forward some corresponding proposals.