基于灰色模型的电力负荷短期预测

Short-term Power Load Forecasting Based upon Grey Model

准确的负荷预测可以保证电网的安全稳定运行,提高电力系统运行的经济效益,为此,基于灰色理论建立了电力负荷预测模型,并结合陕西省汉中市区电力局某变电站2006年7月的实际负荷讨论了灰色模型在短期负荷预测中的应用,实例计算表明,该模型具有预测精度高、计算过程简单等特点。

Accurate load forecasting can ensure safe and stable operation of power network and increase economic benefits of power system. Therefore, a model for power load forecasting is created based on the grey theory. In combination with the actual load of some substation under the urban power bureau of Hanzhong, Shaanxi in July 2006, the application of grey model in short-term load forecasting is discussed. Calculation example shows that the model is characterized by high forecasting precision and simple calculation process, etc.