基于ECM模型的城镇居民收入与消费问题的实证研究——以杭州为例

Empirical Study on Income and Consumption of Urban Residents by ECM Model: Case Study on Hangzhou

本文根据协整理论与误差修正模型,利用1978-2007年度数据以杭州市为例对城镇居民收入与消费的协整关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:杭州市城镇居民家庭的人均消费与收入之间存在单向长期稳定的因果关系,即人均可支配收入变动是影响人均消费变动的原因,而人均消费变动不是影响人均可支配收入变动的原因。因此,从长期来看,要刺激城镇居民消费来拉动经济增长,必须增加城镇居民的可支配收入。

Based on co-integration theory and ECM model, and using 1978-2007 annual data of Hangzhou as an example, this paper conducts an empirical analysis to the co-integration between the income and consumption of urban residents. The results show that： there is a long-term stable lineal causal relationship between per capita consumption and income of Hangzhou urban households, i.e. changes in per capita disposable income is the reason affecting the changes of per capita consumption, yet the changes in per capita consumption is not the reason affecting the changes of per capita disposable income. Therefore, in the long term, to stimulate consumption of urban residents to promote economic growth, the disposable income of urban residents needs to be increased.