矿井涌水量混沌时间序列分析与预测

Chaotic time series analysis and prediction for mine water inflow

矿井地下水系统是个非线性系统,由于地下水系统的复杂性,很难完全确定影响矿井涌水量的因素,因此传统的矿井涌水预测表现出较大的局限性。而混沌时间序列分析能够利用单变量处理方法,分析矿井地下水系统中,由于多因素耦合作用所产生的矿井涌水量时间序列。通过对某矿区1985年9月至2005年2月矿井涌水量时间序列资料的分析,显示矿井涌水量时间序列具有混沌特征;通过对比预测值和实测值,表明预测精度高。因此,混沌时间序列分析方法用于矿井涌水量预测是可行的。

The traditional forecasting methods for mine water inflow have limitations to show the underground system entirely, especially for the nonlinear underground mine water system of many unclear factors. However, the chaotic time series analysis methods can analyze the multi-parameters system by the single parameter information. Therefore, authors have a try for applying the chaotic time series analysis method to analyze a mine water inflow time series. Finally, the analysis results of mine water inflow data from September, 1985 to February, 2005 of a mine indicate that the mine water time series has chaotic characters and the chaotic time series analysis method is effective to predict mine water inflow.