中国资本管制有效性辨析

Effectiveness of China’s Capital Control

尽管中国资本管制有效性下降,成本增加,但资本流入管制和整体的资本管制仍起作用,不能过分夸大热钱流入规模及其对经济的影响。当前不能完全放开资本管制,但也不应指望通过资本管制解决国际收支不平衡问题。逐步实现人民币资本项目可兑换是大势所趋。

Despite less effectiveness and higher costs, China＇s administration on capital inflows and overall capital control still works. The problem of ＂hot money＂ inflow and its implications on China＇s economy cannot be exaggerated. Although currently it is premature to fully lift the capital control, tackling external imbalance by strengthening capital control will hardly go very far. Given China＇s deeper integration with the world economy and the aim to achieve efficient resource allocation, it is essential to pursue capital account liberalization in a gradual and orderly manner.