跨国公司在华投资企业股权结构变动的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Change of Ownership Structure of Enterprises Invested by TNC in China

跨国公司在华投资企业股权结构变动包括两方面的内容,一是总体变动中的"独资化"倾向,二是合资企业内部股权结构变动。从投资项目数、协议投资额和实际投资额"三维"角度进行分析,股权结构变动曲线上的拐点互有偏离。协议投资额的独资化趋势要慢于项目数的独资化趋势,而实际投资额的独资化趋势又要慢于协议投资额的独资化趋势,三者之间存在一个合理的滞后期。外方增资具有十分明显的控股意图,但独资化趋势很弱,即合资企业通过增资变成100%控股的企业极少。这一方面表明外方增资时留有余地,依然保留了合资偏好,另一方面是中方的资本金比较充足,并具备了一定的博弈应变能力。合资企业虽然具有极大的不稳定性,但也不可能全部发展为独资企业,合资企业内部存在一种利益均衡机制,对外方而言,是否独资取决于公司的绩效表现,而对于中方而言,通过同步增资,可以抵制外商独资化趋势。

The change of the shareholding structure of the TNC in China includes two sectors. One is the sole - invested tendency in the general change, while the other is the change of the inner ownership structure in the joint ventures. Analyzing from the three angles of the number of investment projects, the amount of the agreement investment and that of the actual investment, the tm＇ning points on the changing curves of the ownership structure diverge from each other. The solely - owned tendency of the agreement investment is slower than that of the project number, and the tendency of the actual investment is slower than that of the agreement investment. Therefore there exists the rational lagging period among the three sectors. The foreigners have obvious intention to be shareholders when they want to add the investment, but the tendency is very weak. That indicates not only the foreigners also keep the joint preference, but also the Chinese sectors have enough capital and some degree of the game capacity. Although the joint ventures are unstable, but it is impossible for all of them to develop into the proprietors. There is a beneficial equilibrium in the inner of the joint ventures. For the foreigners, whether to solely invest or not is decided by the performance of that venture. While for the Chinese sectors, it may resist the tendency of the sole investment by adding their investment simultaneously.